China’s Flattening Emissions: A Decoupling of Growth and Pollution

One of the most significant and heartening developments in 2025 was China’s remarkable achievement in stabilizing its carbon dioxide emissions. The world’s second-largest economy and historically its largest climate polluter has managed to maintain flat emissions for the past eighteen months. This accomplishment is particularly noteworthy because it has occurred while China’s economy continues to grow, projected to expand by approximately 5% this year, and despite a persistent rise in electricity demand.

Previously, emissions flattening in China often coincided with economic contraction, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the current trend signifies a fundamental shift: China has successfully decoupled economic growth from emissions increases. This breakthrough is attributed to the massive deployment of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles (EVs). The nation has now installed such substantial solar and wind power capacity, and put so many EVs on its roads, that its expanding economy no longer necessitates an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The scale of China’s renewable energy expansion is staggering. In the first nine months of 2025 alone, China added an impressive 240 gigawatts of solar power capacity and 61 gigawatts of wind power. To put this into perspective, the solar capacity installed in China during this period is nearly equivalent to the total solar power installed in the entire United States.

While it remains too early to definitively declare that China’s emissions have peaked, the country has committed to reaching this milestone before 2030. Although China’s current trajectory is not yet fast enough to meet the stringent temperature targets set by international agreements, and few countries are on such a path, its actions are profoundly significant. China is not only the leading producer of the world’s clean energy technologies but is also demonstrating that industrial economies can transition to cleaner energy without sacrificing economic prosperity. This sets a crucial precedent and paves the way for accelerated climate progress in the years ahead.

Batteries on the Grid: A Decade Ahead of Schedule

The rapid proliferation of grid-scale battery storage is another major positive story from 2025. These large-scale battery installations are revolutionizing how electricity grids function. They absorb surplus electricity generated from intermittent renewable sources like solar when prices are low and then discharge that power back to the grid during peak demand periods, ensuring reliability and stability.

The growth in battery storage capacity in the United States has been nothing short of extraordinary. In 2015, the industry had installed a mere fraction of a gigawatt of battery storage. A seemingly ambitious target of 35 gigawatts by 2035 was set. Astonishingly, the sector surpassed this goal a full decade early in 2025, reaching the target in September and then exceeding it to hit 40 gigawatts just a couple of months later.

This rapid deployment is being fueled by continually falling costs. In 2025, battery prices for both EVs and stationary storage reached new record lows. Notably, battery packs specifically designed for grid storage saw even more dramatic price reductions, falling by an impressive 45% compared to the previous year. This cost-effectiveness is a critical driver for continued expansion.

The impact of this increased battery capacity is already being felt. States like California and Texas are increasingly relying on batteries to meet evening electricity demand, significantly reducing the need to fire up carbon-intensive natural-gas plants. This transition is leading to cleaner, more resilient, and more stable power grids.

AI’s Energy Funding Influx: Catalyzing Next-Generation Technologies

The burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) sector presents a complex picture for the energy landscape, as extensively covered this year. The computational demands of AI are driving up electricity consumption; in the US, utilities supplied 22% more power to data centers in 2025, with projections indicating this demand will more than double by 2030.

However, amidst the challenges, AI’s influence on energy is also yielding a positive outcome: a renewed surge in interest and investment in next-generation energy technologies. While a significant portion of the immediate energy needs for AI data centers may still be met by fossil fuels, particularly new natural-gas plants, major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta are committed to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. This commitment is compelling them to actively seek and invest in cleaner energy alternatives.

In a significant move, Meta partnered with XGS Energy in June to procure up to 150 megawatts of electricity from a geothermal power plant. Further demonstrating this trend, Google announced in October an agreement to help reopen the Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa, a previously shuttered nuclear power plant.

Geothermal and nuclear power hold immense potential as foundational elements of the future grid. Unlike intermittent sources like wind and solar, they can provide a constant, reliable baseload power. While many advanced versions of these technologies are still in developmental stages, the increased capital and attention from influential industry leaders are invaluable catalysts for their advancement and eventual widespread adoption.

Good News, Bad News: A Degree of Warming Averted, But Progress Stalls

Perhaps the most compelling evidence of collective climate progress observed so far is the fact that we have averted some of the gravest dangers that scientists feared just a decade ago. According to Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific initiative that monitors national policy progress towards Paris Agreement goals, the world is currently on track for approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustrial levels by 2100.

While this level of warming is still considerably higher than the desired global temperature limits, it represents a full degree Celsius improvement compared to the 3.6 degrees Celsius warming trajectory that the world was on just prior to the signing of the Paris Agreement nearly ten years ago. This significant reduction in projected warming is a direct result of increased emissions mandates, substantial subsidies, and robust investment in research and development by numerous nations, coupled with the private sector’s rapid scaling of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and EVs.

The sobering counterpoint to this progress is that the pace of climate action has stalled. Climate Action Tracker’s warming projections have remained static for the past four years, indicating that nations have largely failed to implement the additional measures necessary to bring the warming curve closer to the 2 degrees Celsius target outlined in the international agreement.

Nevertheless, the fact that a full degree of potential warming has been avoided is a powerful testament to humanity’s capacity to unite and address a global threat. It demonstrates that even profoundly difficult problems can be tackled. Crucially, this progress has laid the essential technical groundwork for a society that can function with significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The hope is that as cleantech continues to advance and the impacts of climate change become more pronounced, the world will find the renewed collective will to accelerate its climate action efforts in the near future.