Indeed, the recent performance of many of last year’s much-heralded IPO "darlings" serves as a stark warning. Consider Figma, the innovative design software company that captivated the tech world. Its journey has been particularly illustrative of the market’s volatility. After a spectacular debut in July that saw its valuation soar to an eye-watering $68 billion, more than tripling its initial offering price, the company’s trajectory has since reversed dramatically. Today, Figma’s valuation hovers around $14 billion—a significant plunge that places it well below the $20 billion figure Adobe had once planned to pay in its ill-fated acquisition attempt three years prior. That acquisition, which was ultimately scuttled due to intense regulatory scrutiny from authorities in the EU and UK, coupled with a broader downturn in tech valuations, highlights the disconnect between private market exuberance and the rigorous realities of public market and regulatory oversight. The initial euphoria around Figma’s technology and growth potential has given way to a more sober assessment, reflecting a broader trend of public investors prioritizing profitability and sustainable growth over pure top-line expansion.

The fintech and crypto sectors, once hotbeds of innovation and investor excitement, have experienced similar, if not steeper, corrections. Circle, a prominent stablecoin issuer, has seen its valuation plummet by more than two-thirds from its peak in June, battered by regulatory uncertainties surrounding digital assets and a broader cooling of the crypto market. Klarna, the "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) giant, finds itself near its lowest point since its September IPO, grappling with increased competition, rising interest rates impacting its lending models, and a general tightening of consumer spending. Similarly, Chime, the online banking platform, trades significantly below its first-day price, facing intense competition in the neobanking space and a shift in investor focus towards established, profitable financial institutions. Even other high-profile offerings from late last year, such as StubHub in the ticketing market and Navan (formerly TripActions) in corporate travel management, have struggled to maintain their initial momentum, trading below their debut prices as market conditions tighten and investor scrutiny intensifies.

While these underperformances are certainly disappointing for early investors and company founders, it’s crucial to contextualize them. This isn’t a repeat of the cataclysmic 2022 SPAC meltdown, where numerous companies saw multibillion-dollar valuations evaporate into near worthlessness within a few quarters. The current downturn is more selective, reflecting a market that has matured and become more discerning. Moreover, not all recent market newcomers have faltered. Coreweave, for instance, an AI infrastructure provider, stands out as a success story, remaining well above its IPO price. Its strong performance can be attributed to its strategic position within the booming AI sector, providing essential computing power that underpins the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies—a domain where demand far outstrips supply, making it a compelling investment. Coreweave’s success underscores that the IPO window isn’t entirely closed, but rather highly selective, favoring companies with clear, defensible advantages in high-growth, strategically vital sectors.

Despite these cautionary tales, the broader market had harbored hopes for a resurgence in new offerings in 2026, setting the stage for what many anticipated would be a boom in public listings. However, the continued underwhelming performance of many of last year’s most talked-about entrants casts a long shadow over these aspirations. This isn’t a minor setback; it’s a significant impediment to preparing for some of the largest and most ambitious IPOs ever conceived.

The scale of these potential listings is unprecedented. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s trailblazing space exploration company, has reportedly been eyeing an IPO as early as this summer, with previous discussions suggesting a mind-boggling valuation of $1.5 trillion. Such a valuation would unequivocally make it the most valuable new listing of all time, dwarfing previous records. Taking a company of SpaceX’s complexity and capital requirements public presents immense challenges, from managing investor expectations around profitability for long-term space ventures to navigating regulatory approvals for such a disruptive industry player. Its sheer size and the visionary nature of its mission, encompassing everything from reusable rockets to global satellite internet via Starlink, make it a truly unique proposition, capable of generating investor enthusiasm that few others can match.

Close behind in potential market impact are the titans of artificial intelligence. OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, has reportedly contemplated filing for an IPO this year, targeting an astonishing valuation of up to $1 trillion. Its competitor, Anthropic, recently valued around $350 billion, is also exploring an IPO, potentially aiming to beat OpenAI to the public markets. These valuations reflect the transformative potential of AI but also bring intense scrutiny regarding their business models, ethical implications, and the sustainability of their rapid growth in a nascent, highly competitive field. The public market will demand clear paths to profitability and robust governance structures, areas where these rapidly scaled private companies may face significant adjustments.

Beyond these colossal names, a substantial pipeline of other contenders exists across various high-growth sectors. Cybersecurity firms are poised for exits, driven by the ever-increasing threat landscape and the critical need for digital defense. Health tech companies, leveraging AI and data analytics to revolutionize healthcare delivery and diagnostics, also present attractive opportunities. Defense tech, fueled by geopolitical instability and renewed national security interests, is another sector ripe for public listings. Fintech, in particular, continues to show strong momentum for exits, with prominent names like Plaid (a financial data network), Ramp (a corporate card and expense management platform), Monzo, and Revolut (both challenger banks with massive global user bases) frequently cited as favored pre-IPO candidates. These companies represent the evolution of financial services, leveraging technology to offer more efficient, user-friendly, and accessible solutions, but they too will face public market demands for consistent growth, profitability, and robust risk management.

Given this backdrop, one likely outcome in the coming quarters is that startup backers and IPO underwriters will have to be exceptionally strategic and proactive. They will manage to keep the new offering window propped open, but only long enough and wide enough to shepherd a select few, truly "bid" deals to market. If a company is a genuine one-of-a-kind innovator like SpaceX, with its audacious goals and category-defining projects, investor enthusiasm to own a piece of such a transformative player will likely be high enough to support valuations that might otherwise appear wildly ambitious. The same principle could apply to OpenAI, a company at the forefront of the most impactful technological shift of our era. Their unique narratives, disruptive technologies, and immense addressable markets give them an unparalleled capacity to generate excitement and attract capital, even in a cautious market.

However, the more typical IPO candidate—say, an enterprise software unicorn with a viable AI strategy and decently growing revenue—won’t possess the same inherent excitement-generation capacity. These companies, while solid, will face far greater scrutiny. Public investors are no longer content with "growth at all costs"; they demand clear paths to profitability, sustainable competitive advantages, and robust financial metrics. Such "ordinary" deals will likely not be able to rely on their own momentum to prop open a fickle IPO window. Instead, they will need to demonstrate exceptional financial discipline, clear market leadership, and a compelling narrative that goes beyond mere technological promise. The risk for these companies is significant: if the window suddenly slams shut, they could find themselves in the unenviable position of having missed their opportunity, potentially facing down rounds or extended stays in the private market, waiting for a more favorable climate. The current IPO environment is less about passively waiting for the window to open, and more about actively securing it, demanding extraordinary strength and strategic foresight from those hoping to step into the public spotlight.